Free tool · data 1972–2026

Portfolio Crash Test

Enter your mix of equities, bonds, gold and cash. See how it held up in every big sell-off since 1972, and whether bonds are protecting portfolios today.

Worst fall since 1972–

Return per year–

Worst calendar year–

Sell-off	Your mix	60/40	100 % equities

See all seven sell-offs since 1972, including 1973–74 and 2000–02, plus the 54-year chart. We email you the results; the link in the email unlocks them here.

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AMBER Hedge Health today (Sep 2026): The hedge is broken (stocks and bonds move together), but inflation is below the level at which a broken hedge has historically stayed broken. Why this matters →

Monthly data 1972–Sept 2026: S&P 500 total return, 10-year US Treasury (constant maturity), 3-month T-bills, gold. Rebalanced monthly, before costs and taxes, in US dollars. Sell-offs measured from the market peak to the trough. Hypothetical results for education, not investment advice.

What the test shows

Most portfolios are built on the 2000–2020 experience, when bonds rose every time equities fell. Over the longer history that was the exception: in 1973–74 and 2022, bonds fell alongside equities and only cash or gold held up. A defensive mix that holds more than one kind of protection has been more robust than relying on bonds alone.

The full research, 150 years of stock–bond data, is in our free white paper When Bonds Stop Hedging. Our trend-following portfolios, which step aside in long declines, are in the Research Terminal.