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Nobody knows the future
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How professional year-ahead forecasts have done, why the tails decide everything, and the question that replaces "what will happen?".
In this lesson
- Forecasts vs reality in 2008, 2013, 2022 and 2023
- Every S&P 500 month since 1993: why the rare tails decide the outcome
- Measuring instead of predicting, and what reacting looked like in 2000-2010
Apply it
Unfollow or mute one source that mostly predicts. Today.