InvestWealth.com Research Terminal — trend strategies vs buy & hold, cross-asset returns, correlations, drawdowns and momentum
Strategy Alpha vs Buy & Hold
How a disciplined Trend-following approach compared with simply holding each market (buy & hold, B&H). Higher CAGR and Sharpe are better; a smaller max drawdown (Max DD) means less pain along the way.
The hedge is broken (stocks and bonds move together), but inflation is below the level at which a broken hedge has historically stayed broken.
Free account unlocks equity curves, signals and the beginner glossary for all six core markets.
Open free accountStrategy portfolios
Seven complete portfolios built from the single-market strategies — one weight list, rebalanced at every month-end, instead of tracking 30 markets one by one. Every figure is a Backtest after trading costs; each portfolio is compared with a stock/bond mix at the same risk.
Free account shows the results of all seven portfolios — the four multi-asset portfolios below plus three crypto portfolios: return, Sharpe, drawdown, out-of-sample. Premium adds the weights, signals and charts.
Open free accountMulti-asset portfolios
Built from all 30 markets (27 TradFi markets, crypto only where stated). Four risk levels — pick the drawdown you can live with.
Hypothetical backtested results on historical data, including estimated trading costs (0.10 % per 100 % traded, crypto 0.25 %), excluding taxes. Monthly rebalancing at the month-end close, executed at the next close. Backtests have inherent limitations; past performance does not guarantee future results. Research only — not investment advice. Portfolio set LOCK-2026-10-12.
Charting
Interactive weekly candlestick chart, powered by TradingView. Pick one of our markets or type any symbol into the chart’s own search box.
Charts by TradingView. Third-party content, loaded on demand; prices may be delayed. Not investment advice.
Everything you draw on this chart is lost when you leave the page — unless you are signed in to a TradingView account. A free account saves your drawings and lets you set price alerts; the paid plans add more indicators per chart, several saved layouts, more alerts and ad-free charts. We use TradingView ourselves for all our charting.
$15 off: sign up through our link and TradingView gives you a $15 coupon towards your first paid plan.
What’s moving — this month and this year
Total returns of the main asset classes and all markets we follow, month to date and year to date. Green bars grow to the right, red bars to the left.
You see the 6 core markets. Plus ranks all 30 markets — equities, bonds, commodities, currencies and crypto — month to date and year to date.
See Plus →How far below their highs
Every market’s distance from its all-time high (buy & hold), next to the current Drawdown of the strategy shown in the Strategies tab.
| Market | Below all-time high | High on | Days since | Below 52-wk high | Strategy now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil DBO | 2008-07-14 | 6661 | -8.5% | -9.2% | |
| Bitcoin BTC | 2025-10-06 | 368 | -27.9% | -20.0% | |
| Gold GLD | 2026-01-29 | 252 | -23.7% | -14.9% | |
| Nvidia NVDA | 2026-10-06 | 2 | -3.7% | -14.5% | |
| Nasdaq-100 QQQ | 2026-10-06 | 2 | -1.6% | -4.1% | |
| S&P 500 SPY | 2026-10-06 | 2 | -0.7% | -3.4% | |
🔒 24 more markets — Drawdown monitor for all 30 markets with Plus.See Plus → | |||||
Buy & hold, total return. A market 50% below its high needs +100% to get back; the strategies aim to sit out the deep part of these declines.
Trailing returns and volatility
Who has been leading over 1, 3, 6 and 12 months — the raw material of Momentum — and how bumpy each market’s ride is.
| Market | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | 12-mo volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil DBO | -1.5% | +32.9% | +22.5% | +88.9% | 42% |
| Nasdaq-100 QQQ | +4.2% | +5.2% | +23.6% | +22.8% | 20% |
| Nvidia NVDA | +2.2% | +13.0% | +26.9% | +22.2% | 38% |
| S&P 500 SPY | +1.3% | +4.1% | +15.1% | +16.2% | 13% |
| Gold GLD | -5.3% | +1.1% | -12.9% | +1.7% | 30% |
| Bitcoin BTC | +6.1% | +31.4% | +15.7% | -31.7% | 45% |
🔒 24 more markets — Momentum and volatility for all 30 markets with Plus.See Plus → | |||||
Why it matters: markets that rose over the past 6–12 months tend to keep rising for a while (momentum) — the effect the strategies are built on. Volatility tells you how bumpy the ride is: 15% is calm, 40%+ is crypto-like.
Which markets move together
Correlation from −1 to +1 on daily, weekly and monthly returns, plus how it has changed over time. Low or negative pairs are what makes diversification work.
| SPY | TLT | GLD | BTC | DBO | UUP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY S&P 500 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.49 | -0.31 | -0.30 |
| TLT US Treasuries 20y+ | 0.27 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | -0.47 | -0.28 |
| GLD Gold | 0.33 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.29 | -0.09 | -0.46 |
| BTC Bitcoin | 0.49 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 1 | -0.04 | -0.15 |
| DBO WTI Crude Oil | -0.31 | -0.47 | -0.09 | -0.04 | 1 | 0.18 |
| UUP US Dollar Index | -0.30 | -0.28 | -0.46 | -0.15 | 0.18 | 1 |
| SPY | TLT | GLD | BTC | DBO | UUP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY S&P 500 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.18 | -0.09 | -0.19 |
| TLT US Treasuries 20y+ | 0.10 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.10 | -0.32 | -0.16 |
| GLD Gold | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.04 | -0.35 |
| BTC Bitcoin | 0.18 | -0.10 | 0.06 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.07 |
| DBO WTI Crude Oil | -0.09 | -0.32 | -0.04 | 0.02 | 1 | 0.25 |
| UUP US Dollar Index | -0.19 | -0.16 | -0.35 | -0.07 | 0.25 | 1 |
| SPY | TLT | GLD | BTC | DBO | UUP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY S&P 500 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 0.32 | -0.38 |
| TLT US Treasuries 20y+ | 0.18 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.07 | -0.35 | -0.38 |
| GLD Gold | 0.13 | 0.37 | 1 | 0.10 | -0.14 | -0.51 |
| BTC Bitcoin | 0.37 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.14 |
| DBO WTI Crude Oil | 0.32 | -0.35 | -0.14 | 0.11 | 1 | -0.06 |
| UUP US Dollar Index | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.51 | -0.14 | -0.06 | 1 |
The 30-market matrix is part of Plus. See how every market we follow moves against every other — daily, weekly and monthly. The asset-class matrix stays free.
See Plus →The 30-market matrix is part of Plus. See how every market we follow moves against every other — daily, weekly and monthly. The asset-class matrix stays free.
See Plus →The 30-market matrix is part of Plus. See how every market we follow moves against every other — daily, weekly and monthly. The asset-class matrix stays free.
See Plus →How correlations change over time. Pick any two markets and see their 1-year daily, 3-year weekly or 3-year monthly correlation since 2008 — e.g. when stocks and bonds stopped hedging each other.
See Plus →Monthly Research Report
What the quant firms, banks, central banks and academics published this month — scored for relevance to systematic investing, with key takeaways, market context and the themes behind them.
Weekly Research Report
The week’s most important research and market moves in one read: key takeaways, market context, themes and the strongest new items — every Monday.
Daily Research Brief
What was published in the last 24 hours that matters for systematic investors — the morning brief, built at 07:30.
Compiled automatically from public sources by our Research Center and reviewed before publication; firm logos identify the source. Summaries are not investment advice.
Brokers & tools we use
The accounts behind the Research Terminal: where we hold and trade the markets we follow, and how we store crypto between signals. We only list what we use ourselves.
Broker · equities, ETFs, bonds, futures, FX
Our main brokerage account. Every equity, ETF, bond and futures market in the Research Terminal is tradable here, in 150+ markets and 27 currencies from one account.
- Among the lowest commissions and margin rates of any major broker
- Interest paid on idle cash (close to T-bill rates)
- Direct access to US, European and Asian exchanges; multi-currency account
- Professional tools (TWS) plus a simple mobile app and web portal
- Publicly listed (NASDAQ: IBKR), strong balance sheet, strict client-asset segregation
Long-term investors and systematic traders who want one account for all asset classes.
Referred clients can earn up to USD 1,000 of IBKR stock, subject to IBKR’s programme conditions.
Crypto exchange · Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and 300+ assets
Where we buy and sell the crypto markets we follow (BTC, ETH, SOL). Kraken Pro gives low maker/taker fees and deep liquidity; the regular app is enough for a monthly rebalance.
- One of the longest-running exchanges (since 2011) with a clean security record
- Regulated in the EU (MiCA), UK, US and more; proof-of-reserves audits
- Kraken Pro fees from 0.25% / 0.40% and lower with volume
- Staking, EUR/USD deposits by bank transfer, easy withdrawal to your own wallet
Anyone who wants to hold the crypto allocation of a trend strategy on a regulated exchange.
Sign up through our link and Kraken credits you a welcome bonus once you start trading (programme conditions apply).
Hardware wallet · self-custody for Bitcoin and other coins
Coins you intend to hold for months should not sit on an exchange. A Trezor keeps the private keys offline on a small device you own; exchanges are for trading, the wallet is for storage.
- Open-source hardware and software, audited since 2014
- Supports Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and thousands of tokens
- Recovery seed lets you restore everything if the device is lost
- Pairs with Trezor Suite on desktop and mobile
Everyone holding more crypto than they would carry in cash.
| You want to… | Use | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Follow the equity, bond, commodity-ETF and FX strategies | Interactive Brokers | All of those markets in one account, low cost, interest on the cash leg while a strategy is in T-bills. |
| Hold Bitcoin, Ether or Solana for the trend strategies | Kraken (Kraken Pro for lower fees) | Regulated exchange with EUR/USD bank deposits and liquid BTC/ETH/SOL markets; a monthly signal needs one trade a month. |
| Keep crypto safe between signals | Trezor | Private keys offline, on a device you own. Move coins back to the exchange only when the signal changes. |
| Chart and set price alerts | TradingView (see the Charting tab) | Our charting platform; a free account saves drawings and alerts. |
We use these services ourselves and may receive a commission when you open an account through a partner link; it never changes what you pay. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade — brokerage, exchange and custody involve risk, including loss of capital. Check each provider’s availability in your country.
Third-party content, embedded via YouTube’s privacy-enhanced player (no cookies until you press play). InvestWealth.com is not affiliated with the broadcaster.
| Market | Class | CAGR Strategy | CAGR B&H |
Sharpe Strat / B&H |
Max DD Strategy | Max DD B&H |
Signal | Position | VS as of 2026-10-08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY ⓘ | Equities | 12.1% | 10.9% | 0.74 / 0.52 | -28.1% | -55.2% | 🔒 Free account | ||
| Nasdaq-100 QQQ ⓘ | Equities | 14.9% | 10.9% | 0.75 / 0.45 | -31.9% | -83.0% | 🔒 Free account | ||
| Gold GLD ⓘ | Precious Metals | 10.5% | 10.3% | 0.61 / 0.54 | -32.1% | -45.6% | 🔒 Free account | ||
| Bitcoin BTC ⓘ | Crypto | 51.9% | 38.1% | 1.08 / 0.78 | -63.4% | -83.2% | 🔒 Free account | ||
| Crude Oil DBO ⓘ | Commodities | 10.9% | 1.0% | 0.54 / 0.15 | -32.2% | -90.2% | 🔒 Free account | ||
| Nvidia NVDA ⓘ | Equities | 40.3% | 37.0% | 0.98 / 0.79 | -65.4% | -89.7% | 🔒 Free account | ||
| Ethereum ETH | Crypto | 38.9% | 13.1% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -33.8% | -23.8% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Solana SOL | Crypto | 18.9% | 11.6% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -31.8% | -15.6% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| US Treasuries 20Y+ TLT | Bonds | 20.6% | 19.3% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -21.3% | -7.9% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Silver SLV | Precious Metals | 34.7% | 37.7% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -25.4% | -36.3% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Copper CPER | Commodities | 28.4% | 13.0% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -36.4% | -31.7% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Microsoft MSFT | Equities | 28.9% | 12.9% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -12.9% | -24.0% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Apple AAPL | Equities | 25.5% | 33.7% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -17.5% | -11.1% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Amazon AMZN | Equities | 6.7% | 11.8% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -18.1% | -36.6% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Alphabet GOOGL | Equities | 37.1% | 33.7% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -32.9% | -9.0% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Meta Platforms META | Equities | 35.4% | 7.1% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -27.8% | -26.3% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Tesla TSLA | Equities | 28.2% | 16.6% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -16.7% | -6.4% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Broadcom AVGO | Equities | 14.8% | 22.2% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -32.5% | -17.1% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Emerging Markets EEM | Equities | 13.1% | 35.5% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -26.1% | -22.6% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Germany (DAX) EWG | Equities | 15.6% | 22.2% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -15.3% | -28.9% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Japan (Nikkei) EWJ | Equities | 38.0% | 29.9% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -32.7% | -16.9% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| US Small Caps IWM | Equities | 23.7% | 12.5% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -27.3% | -30.3% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Semiconductors SMH | Equities | 11.3% | 27.7% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -32.2% | -37.5% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| US Energy Sector XLE | Equities | 22.4% | 12.4% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -37.3% | -40.0% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| US Financials XLF | Equities | 17.1% | 27.5% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -24.0% | -10.7% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| US Real Estate VNQ | Real Estate | 16.7% | 30.0% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -30.9% | -15.4% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Uranium URA | Commodities | 22.0% | 25.5% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -18.6% | -5.8% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Euro / US Dollar FXE | Currencies | 10.8% | 23.5% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -39.4% | -13.3% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| US Dollar (DXY) UUP | Currencies | 15.3% | 38.6% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -16.0% | -15.0% | 🔒 Plus | ||
| Disruptive Innovation ARKK | Equities | 5.6% | 37.3% | 0.00 / 0.00 | -12.5% | -12.0% | 🔒 Plus | ||
Decisions are taken on the last trading day of each month and executed at the next close. "Invested after" = how many of the 30 markets were in the market after that month-end.
Results are backtested and hypothetical, use monthly data, include estimated trading costs and exclude taxes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Strategy Alpha is a proprietary model; its rules are not disclosed. Not investment advice.
Growth of 100 — Strategy Alpha vs Buy & Hold
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