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US Real Estate: trend-following strategy vs buy & hold

Real Estate · tracked with Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)

VNQ holds US real-estate investment trusts (REITs) — owners of offices, warehouses, apartments, data centres and cell towers that pay out most of their income as dividends.

Growth of 100 since 2004

buy & hold · total return
CAGR · buy & hold
7.2%
per year since 2004
Max drawdown · buy & hold
-73.1%
worst fall from a high
Strategy Alpha
🔒
Results in Plus
Drawdownfall from the previous high

Buy & hold total return of Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ). The Strategy Alpha results and live signal for US Real Estate are part of Plus.

What drives US Real Estate

Interest rates are the main driver, together with rents, occupancy and credit availability.

How a trend-following strategy handles US Real Estate

Real estate behaves like a mix of stocks and bonds: it fell sharply in 2008 and again when rates rose in 2022. Its sensitivity to rates makes its trends persistent.

Our Strategy Alpha applies the same simple, rules-based trend filter to every market: invested while the trend is up, in Treasury bills while it is down, checked once a month. It is not a forecast — it is a discipline that aims to keep most of the long climbs and sit out the deepest drawdowns.

By Dr. Harry Hamann · data updated monthly

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Educational content, not investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future results. Disclaimer.