Nasdaq-100: trend-following strategy vs buy & hold
Equities · tracked with Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
The Nasdaq-100 contains the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. It is dominated by technology and communication businesses — software, semiconductors, internet platforms — and is often used as the barometer for growth stocks.
Growth of 100 since 1999
Strategy Alpha vs buy & hold · data to 2026-06Hypothetical backtest incl. estimated trading costs; T-bills when out of the market. Shown with the same 3-month delay as a Free account — the current signal is in the Research Terminal.
What drives Nasdaq-100
Growth companies are valued on profits expected far in the future, so the index reacts strongly to interest rates: falling rates support it, rising rates hurt it. Innovation cycles and investor appetite for growth drive the rest.
How a trend-following strategy handles Nasdaq-100
The Nasdaq-100 has delivered some of the strongest long-term returns of any major index, but it also lost more than 80% after the dot-com bubble. That combination — powerful uptrends and deep, lasting declines — is exactly where a rules-based trend filter can matter most.
Our Strategy Alpha applies the same simple, rules-based trend filter to every market: invested while the trend is up, in Treasury bills while it is down, checked once a month. It is not a forecast — it is a discipline that aims to keep most of the long climbs and sit out the deepest drawdowns.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future results. Disclaimer.