Semiconductors: trend-following strategy vs buy & hold
Equities · tracked with VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
SMH holds the 25 largest chip companies — designers, manufacturers and equipment makers such as Nvidia, TSMC and Broadcom.
Growth of 100 since 2000
buy & hold · total returnBuy & hold total return of VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). The Strategy Alpha results and live signal for Semiconductors are part of Plus.
What drives Semiconductors
Chips are the backbone of AI, phones, cars and data centres. The industry is famously cyclical: shortages and gluts alternate, and AI spending now dominates demand.
How a trend-following strategy handles Semiconductors
Semiconductors have been among the strongest sectors for decades — with drawdowns of 40–80% along the way. Strong trends plus deep cycles is the profile where trend-following tends to add the most.
Our Strategy Alpha applies the same simple, rules-based trend filter to every market: invested while the trend is up, in Treasury bills while it is down, checked once a month. It is not a forecast — it is a discipline that aims to keep most of the long climbs and sit out the deepest drawdowns.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future results. Disclaimer.