Nvidia: trend-following strategy vs buy & hold
Equities · tracked with Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia designs the graphics processors (GPUs) and software platform that power most of today's artificial-intelligence systems, as well as gaming and professional graphics.
Growth of 100 since 1999
Strategy Alpha vs buy & hold · data to 2026-06Hypothetical backtest incl. estimated trading costs; T-bills when out of the market. Shown with the same 3-month delay as a Free account — the current signal is in the Research Terminal.
What drives Nvidia
Data-centre spending on AI is now the main driver, together with the semiconductor cycle, competition, export rules and the very high expectations already priced into the stock.
How a trend-following strategy handles Nvidia
Nvidia has been one of the best-performing large stocks of the past decades — and has also fallen by more than half several times along the way. A single stock carries far more risk than an index, which makes a disciplined exit rule especially valuable.
Our Strategy Alpha applies the same simple, rules-based trend filter to every market: invested while the trend is up, in Treasury bills while it is down, checked once a month. It is not a forecast — it is a discipline that aims to keep most of the long climbs and sit out the deepest drawdowns.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future results. Disclaimer.