Bitcoin: trend-following strategy vs buy & hold
Crypto · tracked with Bitcoin (BTC-USD)
Bitcoin, launched in 2009, is the first and largest crypto asset. Its supply is capped at 21 million coins and new issuance halves roughly every four years, which is why many investors see it as "digital gold".
Growth of 100 since 2017
Strategy Alpha vs buy & hold · data to 2026-06Hypothetical backtest incl. estimated trading costs; T-bills when out of the market. Shown with the same 3-month delay as a Free account — the current signal is in the Research Terminal.
What drives Bitcoin
Bitcoin is driven by adoption, global liquidity and risk appetite. Spot ETFs, institutional buyers and regulation have become important in recent years, while the four-year issuance cycle still shapes many investors' expectations.
How a trend-following strategy handles Bitcoin
Bitcoin has gained enormously over its history but has also fallen more than 70% several times. Few markets show the textbook pattern of strong trends and brutal reversals more clearly — which is why risk control matters more here than almost anywhere else.
Our Strategy Alpha applies the same simple, rules-based trend filter to every market: invested while the trend is up, in Treasury bills while it is down, checked once a month. It is not a forecast — it is a discipline that aims to keep most of the long climbs and sit out the deepest drawdowns.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future results. Disclaimer.