QQQ vs SPY: Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500 returns, risk and worst falls
QQQ vs SPY compared: average returns over 1 to 25 years, every calendar year since 2000, the worst falls, volatility, fees, and why the starting point changes the answer.
QQQ and SPY are two of the largest ETFs in the world, and the question of which one to own comes up constantly. SPY tracks the S&P 500: the 500 largest US companies across every sector. QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100: the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, dominated by technology and communication companies. It holds no banks or insurers.
Over the last 10 and 20 years QQQ won clearly. Over the full history since 1999 the gap is much smaller than most people think, and the path was far rougher. This guide puts the numbers side by side.
All figures are total returns with dividends reinvested, after each fund's fee, to the end of June 2026. QQQ starts in March 1999.
QQQ vs SPY: average returns
| Period (to June 2026) | SPY (S&P 500) per year | QQQ (Nasdaq-100) per year |
|---|---|---|
| Last 1 year | 19.9% | 29.5% |
| Last 3 years | 19.5% | 24.8% |
| Last 5 years | 12.8% | 15.8% |
| Last 10 years | 15.5% | 21.9% |
| Last 15 years | 14.4% | 19.7% |
| Last 20 years | 11.1% | 16.5% |
| Last 25 years | 9.3% | 12.3% |
| Since March 1999 | 8.4% (×9.1) | 10.9% (×16.7) |
Over 10 years, 10,000 in QQQ grew to about 72,600, against 42,100 in SPY. Over 20 years the gap was even larger: about 213,000 against 82,700.
The catch: it depends on when you started
Measured from the end of 1999, just before the dot-com crash, QQQ returned 8.7% a year and SPY 8.1% over the following 26 years. Almost the same. In the first decade, 2000 to 2009, 10,000 in QQQ shrank to about 5,200, while SPY ended at about 9,000.
The 10-year comparison looks very different depending on the window:
- QQQ was ahead in 88% of all rolling 10-year periods since 1999.
- But its worst 10-year period, ending in February 2010, lost 7.8% a year. SPY's worst lost 2.8% a year.
- Its best 10-year period, ending in November 2021, gained 23.4% a year.
Much of QQQ's lead in recent years comes from one era: the rise of the largest technology companies after 2009.
QQQ vs SPY returns by year
| Year | SPY | QQQ | Year | SPY | QQQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | −9.7% | −36.1% | 2014 | +15.6% | +21.9% |
| 2001 | −10.4% | −30.9% | 2015 | −0.2% | +7.6% |
| 2002 | −23.5% | −38.5% | 2016 | +12.0% | +7.1% |
| 2003 | +27.6% | +44.5% | 2017 | +21.7% | +32.7% |
| 2004 | +12.3% | +12.4% | 2018 | −5.4% | −1.0% |
| 2005 | +4.8% | +1.6% | 2019 | +32.8% | +40.8% |
| 2006 | +15.8% | +7.1% | 2020 | +18.0% | +47.7% |
| 2007 | +5.9% | +20.4% | 2021 | +28.7% | +27.4% |
| 2008 | −39.4% | −43.6% | 2022 | −18.2% | −32.6% |
| 2009 | +30.8% | +57.9% | 2023 | +26.2% | +54.9% |
| 2010 | +15.1% | +20.1% | 2024 | +26.8% | +28.4% |
| 2011 | +1.9% | +3.5% | 2025 | +17.4% | +20.0% |
| 2012 | +14.1% | +15.7% | 2026 (to June) | +6.2% | +13.5% |
| 2013 | +33.9% | +38.8% |
QQQ beat SPY in 17 of the 26 full years from 2000 to 2025. When it lost, it often lost by a lot: −36% vs −10% in 2000, −33% vs −18% in 2022.
Risk: the worst falls
| Decline | SPY fall | QQQ fall | QQQ back to its old high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000–2002 (dot-com bust) | −45.7% | −82.7% | Feb 2015 |
| 2007–2009 (financial crisis) | −54.6% | −51.5% | Nov 2010 |
| 2020 (Covid crash) | −31.8% | −27.3% | Jun 2020 |
| 2022 (inflation bear market) | −23.9% | −35.1% | Dec 2023 |
The dot-com bust is the number to remember. QQQ lost 83% from March 2000 to October 2002 and needed almost 15 years to get back to its old high. An investor who bought QQQ at the top had nothing to show for it until 2015. To recover from −83% an investment has to gain about +490%. Our max drawdown guide explains why deep falls are so hard to come back from.
In the financial crisis and in 2020, QQQ actually fell slightly less than SPY, because it holds no banks. In 2022, when rising interest rates hit growth stocks hardest, it fell much more.
Volatility and risk-adjusted return
| Since 1999 | SPY | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility per year | 16.0% | 24.0% |
| Worst fall | −54.6% | −82.7% |
| Correlation of monthly returns | 0.84 |
QQQ swung about 50% more than SPY. Per unit of risk, the two were almost identical: the Sharpe ratio of both was about 0.5 over the full period. QQQ's higher return came with proportionally higher risk, not as a free lunch.
Fees and what you actually own
- Fees: SPY charges 0.0945% a year, VOO 0.03% and IVV 0.03%. QQQ charges 0.18% since it converted to an open-end fund in December 2025; QQQM, the same index for buy-and-hold investors, charges 0.15%. On 10,000, that is a difference of a few euros a year: not the deciding factor.
- Overlap: almost every company in the Nasdaq-100 is also in the S&P 500, and the largest technology companies make up a big share of both. Owning both is less diversified than it looks.
- Concentration: QQQ's top ten holdings make up a much larger share of the fund than SPY's, so a handful of companies decide most of its result.
What about holding both?
A 50/50 mix of SPY and QQQ since 1999 returned about 9.9% a year against 8.5% for the S&P 500 alone, with a deeper worst fall, about −66% at month-ends against −51%. Because the two are so highly correlated, the mix behaves like a more tech-heavy S&P 500, not like a diversified portfolio.
QQQ or SPY: how to decide
There is no answer that fits everyone, but these questions help:
- Can you sit through an 80% fall? If a −35% year like 2022 would make you sell, QQQ's history is a warning. Many investors who bought it in 2000 sold near the bottom.
- How long is your horizon? Over 10 years and more, QQQ was usually ahead, but not always, and its worst decade was much worse.
- How concentrated do you want to be? SPY spreads your money across every sector. QQQ is a bet that the largest technology and growth companies keep leading.
- Is it your whole portfolio or a part? Many investors use a broad index as the core and treat a sector or growth fund as a smaller addition.
The free Research Terminal shows both markets, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, with returns, the worst fall and the full drawdown history, next to InvestWealth's systematic strategy for each. For the S&P 500 alone, see S&P 500 historical returns.
Frequently asked questions
Is QQQ better than SPY?
Over the last 10 and 20 years QQQ returned more: about 21.9% a year against 15.5% over 10 years to June 2026. But it was far more volatile and lost 83% in the dot-com crash. Measured from the end of 1999, the two returned almost the same, about 8.7% and 8.1% a year. Which suits you depends on how large a fall you can sit through.
What is the average return of QQQ over the last 20 years?
About 16.5% a year with dividends reinvested, to June 2026, against 11.1% for SPY. Over 25 years, a period that includes the dot-com crash, QQQ returned about 12.3% a year and SPY 9.3%.
Why is QQQ more volatile than SPY?
QQQ holds only 100 companies, concentrated in technology and communication, with no financial companies. Its largest holdings make up a big share of the fund. That concentration produced higher returns in the 2010s and 2020s and much deeper falls in 2000–2002 and 2022.
Should I hold both QQQ and SPY?
Holding both adds little diversification, because almost every Nasdaq-100 company is also in the S&P 500 and the two had a correlation of about 0.84. A mix behaves like a more technology-heavy S&P 500. This is general information, not a recommendation.
What is the difference between QQQ and QQQM?
Both track the Nasdaq-100. QQQM charges 0.15% a year against 0.18% for QQQ and trades at a lower share price; QQQ trades far more volume, which matters mainly to active traders. For long-term investors the returns are almost identical.
Turn this into a process: the numbers, live, for free
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Educational content, not investment advice. Disclaimer.