S&P 500 historical returns: by year, on average, and over the last 10, 20 and 30 years

The S&P 500, the 500 largest US companies weighted by size, is the benchmark most investors compare themselves with. Its long-run return is usually quoted as "about 10% a year". That number is roughly right, but it hides how uneven the path was. This page shows the actual record: every calendar year since 1994, the average over different horizons, and how far the result depended on when you started.

All figures are total returns: price changes plus dividends reinvested, measured with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY, after its 0.09% fee), to the end of June 2026. VOO and IVV, the other big S&P 500 ETFs, track the same index and returned almost exactly the same.

Average return of the S&P 500

"Average return per year" here is the compound annual growth rate (CAGR): the steady yearly rate that turns the starting value into the final value. It is the number that matters for your wealth. The simple arithmetic average of the yearly returns is higher (12.4% over 1994–2025) because it ignores the damage that losses do to compounding.

Over much longer periods the picture is similar: the S&P 500 and its predecessor index returned roughly 10% a year including dividends since 1928, according to the long-run dataset maintained by Aswath Damodaran at NYU Stern. After inflation, that is roughly 6–7% a year.

S&P 500 returns by year

Three things stand out:

• Most years were up. 25 of the 32 full years from 1994 to 2025 (78%) had a positive return.
• "Average" years are rare. Only a handful of years landed anywhere near 10%. Returns cluster in strong years of +15% to +35% and painful ones of −10% to −40%.
• The losses come in bunches. 2000, 2001 and 2002 were all negative; an investor who started in early 2000 needed until 2006–07 to be ahead.

How much the starting point matters

The average hides how different your experience could be depending on when you invested. Here is the range of results for every holding period, measured on every month since 1993:

The worst 10-year period ended in February 2009: an investor who bought in early 1999 had lost money over a full decade. The best 10-year period ended in late 2021. Over every 20-year window since 1993 the S&P 500 made money, but the yearly rate still ranged from under 5% to over 11%.

The falls behind the averages

The long-run return was earned through several deep declines. From peak to bottom, with dividends:

A −55% fall needs a gain of +122% just to get back to the starting point. That is why a strategy's return per year should always be read next to its worst fall; see our guide to max drawdown.

VOO, SPY and IVV: average returns

VOO (Vanguard), SPY (State Street) and IVV (iShares) all hold the S&P 500. Their returns differ only by their small fees (0.03% to 0.09% a year) and tiny tracking differences, so the S&P 500 figures above apply to all three: about 15.5% a year over the last 10 years and 11.1% over the last 20 years to June 2026.

For comparison, the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), which is dominated by the largest technology companies, returned 21.9% a year over the last 10 years and 16.5% over the last 20 years, but with deeper falls: −83% from 2000 to 2002.

What these numbers mean for you

• Plan with a lower number than the last 10 years. 15% a year from 2016 to 2026 is far above the long-run average. Over 25 and 30 years the S&P 500 returned 9–10%.
• Expect the bad years. Roughly one year in five was negative, and one decade in this sample was. A plan that only works with average years will fail in a real one.
• Time is the strongest risk reducer. No 20-year period since 1993 lost money, while one year in five did.
• Use the numbers in a calculator: the investment calculator shows the real S&P 500 path for any start year, and the compound interest calculator shows what a steady rate would do. Planning withdrawals instead? The safe withdrawal rate calculator tests the 4% rule on every start year since 1872.

Frequently asked questions