US Treasuries 20Y+: trend-following strategy vs buy & hold
Bonds · tracked with iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT holds US government bonds with more than 20 years to maturity. They carry practically no default risk, but their prices react strongly to changes in long-term interest rates.
Growth of 100 since 2002
buy & hold · total returnBuy & hold total return of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The Strategy Alpha results and live signal for US Treasuries 20Y+ are part of Plus.
What drives US Treasuries 20Y+
Inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, government borrowing and demand for safe assets drive long-term yields. When yields rise, long bond prices fall — and vice versa.
How a trend-following strategy handles US Treasuries 20Y+
Long Treasuries often rise when stocks crash, which makes them a classic hedge. But after 2020 TLT lost roughly half its value as inflation and rates surged — a reminder that "safe" does not mean "without drawdowns".
Our Strategy Alpha applies the same simple, rules-based trend filter to every market: invested while the trend is up, in Treasury bills while it is down, checked once a month. It is not a forecast — it is a discipline that aims to keep most of the long climbs and sit out the deepest drawdowns.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future results. Disclaimer.