Is the stock market crashing?
Measured, not predicted. Where the S&P 500 and the other big markets stand against their highs today, set against every large fall since 1955. Data to 23 October 2026, updated with each trading day.
| Market | Below its high | High | 1 month | 12 months | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −2.5% | Oct 2026 | −1.0% | +14.4% | 13% |
| Nasdaq-100 | −7.3% | Oct 2026 | −5.0% | +15.9% | 20% |
| US Small Caps | −9.4% | Aug 2026 | −2.2% | +13.0% | 18% |
| Emerging Markets | −12.9% | Jun 2026 | −8.4% | +15.5% | 25% |
| US Treasuries 20y+ | −42.3% | Aug 2020 | +1.5% | −6.9% | 10% |
| Gold | −26.1% | Jan 2026 | −6.7% | −3.2% | 29% |
| Bitcoin | −35.7% | Oct 2025 | −4.7% | −28.2% | 44% |
| Nvidia | −11.8% | Oct 2026 | −6.5% | +16.1% | 38% |
Closing prices; "below its high" is the fall from the highest close in the data. Volatility = annualised standard deviation of daily returns over the last 12 months. Bitcoin trades every day; the others on trading days.
How today compares with the big falls since 1955
Twelve times since 1955 the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 15% from a high. The table gives each fall's depth and how long it took to reach the bottom. Today's reading, 2.5% below the high, is smaller than every one of them.
| Sell-off | S&P 500, peak to bottom | Time to the bottom |
|---|---|---|
| 1957 | −16 % | 4 months |
| 1961–62 | −21 % | 6 months |
| 1966 | −15 % | 9 months |
| 1968–70 | −28 % | 18 months |
| 1972–74 | −43 % | 21 months |
| 1980–82 | −17 % | 20 months |
| 1987 | −30 % | 3 months |
| 1998 | −15 % | 2 months |
| 2000–02 | −45 % | 26 months |
| 2007–09 | −51 % | 16 months |
| 2019–20 | −19 % | 3 months |
| 2021–22 | −24 % | 9 months |
Month-end total returns, from White Paper No. 1, Exhibit 11. Daily closes give slightly deeper figures (for example −34% in 1987 and −34% in 2020). The 1929 crash, before this table, was −85%.
How often falls happen
Since 1993 (33.6 years of daily data, price index without dividends) the S&P 500 has:
- spent 55% of all days within 5% of a high: being near a high is the normal state;
- spent 31% of days more than 10% below a high and 17% more than 20% below one;
- fallen more than 10% from a high 12 times, about once every 2.8 years.
A fall is not a forecast of a bigger fall. Most corrections of 10% did not become bear markets; the ones that did (2000, 2007, 2022) shared a measurable feature: the market's longer trend had already turned down and, in 2022, bonds had stopped hedging. Those two readings are what we publish, and neither is a prediction.
What we do not do: predict
Every year somebody forecasts a crash, and some year they are right. In 2008 the consensus forecast was a gain and the index fell 39%; in 2023 most expected little and it rose 24%. Our guide on market timing goes through the record. The useful alternative is a fixed process: a position size chosen for the worst fall you can sit through, a defensive part of the portfolio that actually hedges in the current regime (Hedge Health tells you whether bonds do, today), and a monthly check of each market's trend. A process does not know when the next fall comes. It does not need to.
What to do now
- Run your own mix through the Portfolio Crash Test: what stocks, bonds, gold and cash in your proportions did in the twelve falls above.
- Read the crash protection guide: position size, the defensive sleeve, and the written plan for −10%, −20% and −30%.
- Know the two kinds of fall: the slow bear market (1929, 2000, 2008) that a monthly process can step aside from, and the fast crash (1987, 2020) that only position size protects against.
Frequently asked questions
Is the stock market crashing right now?
As of 23 October 2026 the S&P 500 was 2.5% below its high of 6 October 2026. That is within the normal range: the index spends more than half of all days within 5% of a high. This page updates with each trading day.
What counts as a crash, a correction and a bear market?
There is no official definition of a crash; the word is used for fast, large falls such as October 1987 or March 2020. A correction is a fall of 10% or more from a high, a bear market a fall of 20% or more. Since 1955 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 15% twelve times; the deepest were 1973–74 (−43%), 2000–02 (−45%) and 2007–09 (−51%).
How often does the stock market crash?
Since 1993 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 10% from a high 12 times, about once every 2.8 years, and spent 31% of all days more than 10% below a high and 17% of days more than 20% below one (price index, dividends excluded). Falls of more than 15% came about once every six years since 1955.
Will the stock market crash in 2026?
Nobody knows, and the record of forecasts is poor: for 2008 the consensus expected a gain and the index fell 39%. What can be measured is where the market stands against its high, whether its trend is up or down, and whether bonds are currently hedging stocks. This page shows those measurements; it does not make predictions.
What should I do if the stock market crashes?
Decide before it happens, not during. The investors who were hurt most in past crashes were those who sold near the bottom or held a position too large to sit through. A written plan with a position size you can hold through a 30% fall, a defensive part of the portfolio that actually hedges in the current regime, and a fixed schedule for decisions beats any reaction to the news. Our crash protection guide sets this out.
Educational research, not investment advice. Past returns do not guarantee future results. Figures update automatically from our data pipeline; the page was last rebuilt 26 Oct 2026 20:41 UTC.
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