S&P 500: fact sheet

Every number of the InvestWealth System for S&P 500 next to simply buying and holding SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): Jan 1993 to Jul 2026, 33.5 years, trading costs included.

From 1993 to 2026 the InvestWealth System for S&P 500 grew 12.1% a year against 10.8% for buy & hold, with a worst fall of 29.5% against 55.2%. Its biggest lead over buy & hold came in 2008 (+42 points, a year when buy & hold lost 37%).

Hypothetical backtest · full sample · data to 31 Jul 2026 (3-month delay, so no current position can be read off this page) · about S&P 500

CAGR
12.1%
Buy & hold 10.8%
Sharpe ratio
0.73
Buy & hold 0.51
Max drawdown
-29.5%
Buy & hold -55.2%
Calmar ratio
0.41
Buy & hold 0.20
Volatility
13.5%
Buy & hold 18.6%
Longest time under water
2.4 years
Buy & hold 6.6 years
Positive years
84%
Buy & hold 81%
Time invested
81%
Buy & hold 100%

Growth of 100

InvestWealth System vs buy & hold · log scale
Drawdownfall from the previous high · time under water

Key statistics

Green = better than buy & hold. Hover or tap a name for what it means.

StatisticInvestWealth SystemBuy & hold
Return
CAGR12.08%10.79%
Total return4,463%2,998%
Best year34.0%38.0%
Worst year-22.4%-36.8%
Risk
Volatility13.5%18.6%
Max drawdown-29.5%-55.2%
Average drawdown-1.7%-1.9%
Longest time under water2.4 years6.6 years
Time below a previous high88%90%
Falls of 20 % or more34
Ulcer index6.42%14.45%
Return per unit of risk
Sharpe ratio0.730.51
Sortino ratio1.020.72
Calmar ratio0.410.20
Consistency
Positive years84%81%
Positive months69%65%
Worst month-10.7%-16.5%
Skew (monthly)-0.17-0.55
How the strategy behaves
Time invested81%100%
Switches per year0.7–
Trading costs per year0.33%–
All statistics (46 numbers)
StatisticInvestWealth SystemBuy & hold
Return
CAGR12.08%10.79%
Total return4,463%2,998%
Best year34.0%38.0%
Worst year-22.4%-36.8%
Best month13.5%12.7%
Worst month-10.7%-16.5%
Best day7.46%14.52%
Worst day-7.00%-10.94%
Average up month2.74%3.37%
Average down month-2.83%-3.57%
Risk and drawdowns
Volatility13.5%18.6%
Max drawdown-29.5%-55.2%
Average drawdown-1.7%-1.9%
Longest time under water2.4 years6.6 years
Average time under water22 days26 days
Time below a previous high88%90%
Falls of 10 % or more1312
Falls of 20 % or more34
Ulcer index6.42%14.45%
Value at risk (95 %, 1 day)-1.39%-1.80%
Expected shortfall (95 %, 1 day)-2.03%-2.78%
Return per unit of risk
Sharpe ratio0.730.51
Sortino ratio1.020.72
Calmar ratio0.410.20
Omega ratio1.181.13
Gain/pain ratio1.150.76
Profit factor (monthly)2.151.76
Tail ratio0.980.94
Recovery factor151.554.3
Distribution
Skew (monthly)-0.17-0.55
Kurtosis (monthly, excess)0.720.98
Skew (daily)-0.40-0.01
Kurtosis (daily, excess)4.9311.83
Consistency
Positive years84%81%
Positive months69%65%
Positive days57.4%54.5%
Longest winning streak2315
Longest losing streak75
Compared with buy & hold
Beta to buy & hold0.46–
Correlation with buy & hold0.63–
Up-month capture77%–
Down-month capture55%–
How the strategy behaves
Time invested81%100%
Average exposure78%100%
Switches per year0.7–
Trading costs per year0.33%–

Every calendar year

InvestWealth SystemBuy & hold
Table: every year, strategy vs buy & hold
YearInvestWealth SystemBuy & holdDifference
2026 (part)+10.1%+10.1%0.0 pts
2025+14.6%+17.7%-3.1 pts
2024+24.7%+24.9%-0.2 pts
2023+26.2%+26.2%+0.0 pts
2022-22.4%-18.2%-4.2 pts
2021+28.6%+28.7%-0.2 pts
2020+16.5%+18.3%-1.9 pts
2019+19.5%+31.2%-11.7 pts
2018+7.6%-4.6%+12.1 pts
2017+21.7%+21.7%0.0 pts
2016+26.2%+12.0%+14.2 pts
2015-4.0%+1.2%-5.3 pts
2014+13.5%+13.5%0.0 pts
2013+32.3%+32.3%0.0 pts
2012+16.8%+16.0%+0.8 pts
2011-10.0%+1.9%-11.9 pts
2010+18.5%+15.1%+3.4 pts
2009+4.5%+26.4%-21.9 pts
2008+5.1%-36.8%+41.9 pts
2007+4.2%+5.1%-0.9 pts
2006+15.8%+15.8%0.0 pts
2005+4.8%+4.8%0.0 pts
2004+10.7%+10.7%0.0 pts
2003+21.2%+28.2%-7.0 pts
2002+6.9%-21.6%+28.5 pts
2001+3.5%-11.8%+15.2 pts
2000-4.1%-9.7%+5.7 pts
1999+17.0%+20.4%-3.4 pts
1998+19.1%+28.7%-9.6 pts
1997+20.2%+33.5%-13.3 pts
1996+20.0%+22.5%-2.5 pts
1995+34.0%+38.0%-4.1 pts
1994-3.4%+0.4%-3.8 pts
1993 (part)+8.7%+8.7%0.0 pts

(part) = the first and last year are not complete calendar years. Best and worst year in the statistics count full years only.

Every month

Monthly returns of the InvestWealth System. The last two columns: the whole year, strategy and buy & hold.

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYearB&H
20261.5-0.9-4.910.55.3-1.00.0 10.110.1
20252.7-1.3-5.4-1.74.25.12.32.13.62.40.20.1 14.617.7
20241.65.23.3-4.05.13.51.22.22.1-0.96.0-2.4 24.724.9
20236.7-5.16.21.60.56.53.3-1.6-4.7-2.29.14.6 26.226.2
2022-5.3-2.42.0-8.9-2.8-1.4-0.1-3.7-5.6-3.97.80.2 -22.4-18.2
2021-1.02.84.55.30.72.22.43.0-4.77.0-0.84.5 28.628.7
20200.0-8.0-3.84.14.51.05.27.0-4.1-2.69.83.7 16.518.3
20191.43.21.84.1-6.64.31.5-1.91.82.23.62.9 19.531.2
20185.6-4.6-3.00.02.40.63.73.20.6-7.21.35.4 7.6-4.6
20171.83.90.11.01.40.62.10.32.02.43.11.2 21.721.7
20165.57.0-0.52.01.70.33.60.10.0-1.73.72.0 26.212.0
2015-3.05.6-1.61.01.3-2.02.3-6.50.10.70.4-1.9 -4.01.2
2014-3.54.60.80.72.32.1-1.33.9-1.42.42.7-0.3 13.513.5
20135.11.33.81.92.4-1.35.2-3.03.24.63.02.6 32.332.3
20125.34.33.2-0.7-6.04.11.22.52.5-1.80.60.9 16.816.0
20112.33.50.02.9-1.1-1.7-2.0-7.0-4.00.9-0.1-3.6 -10.01.9
2010-3.63.16.11.5-6.4-3.56.3-4.59.03.80.06.7 18.515.1
2009-3.80.00.8-5.13.3-2.21.50.93.5-1.96.21.9 4.526.4
2008-6.42.4-1.9-3.3-0.93.6-0.9-3.32.8-9.013.510.7 5.1-36.8
20071.5-2.01.14.43.4-1.5-3.11.14.11.4-4.7-1.2 4.25.1
20062.40.61.71.3-3.00.30.42.22.73.22.01.3 15.815.8
2005-2.22.1-1.8-1.93.20.23.8-0.90.8-2.44.4-0.2 4.84.8
20042.01.4-1.3-1.91.71.9-3.20.21.01.34.53.0 10.710.7
2003-0.21.6-0.60.63.01.11.82.1-1.15.41.15.0 21.228.2
20020.10.10.10.20.10.10.82.82.2-1.8-0.42.3 6.9-21.6
20010.50.40.40.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.20.1 3.5-11.8
2000-3.5-1.57.3-4.7-0.81.2-1.66.5-5.5-1.70.50.5 -4.1-9.7
19992.9-2.33.42.8-2.65.5-3.1-0.5-2.15.21.45.7 17.020.4
19980.06.34.91.3-2.13.3-1.8-10.73.05.24.84.5 19.128.7
19975.61.0-4.44.24.54.36.7-4.93.5-4.61.91.6 20.233.5
19963.50.31.31.12.30.9-4.90.75.63.27.3-2.3 20.022.5
19950.34.12.83.04.02.03.20.44.2-0.34.41.6 34.038.0
19943.5-2.9-4.21.11.6-2.50.13.8-2.52.8-4.30.5 -3.40.4
19931.12.2-2.62.70.4-0.53.8-0.72.0-1.11.2 8.78.7
Buy & hold, every month
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYear
20261.5-0.9-4.910.55.3-1.00.0 10.1
20252.7-1.3-5.6-0.96.35.12.32.13.62.40.20.1 17.7
20241.65.23.3-4.05.13.51.22.32.1-0.96.0-2.4 24.9
20236.3-2.53.71.60.56.53.3-1.6-4.7-2.29.14.6 26.2
2022-5.3-3.03.8-8.80.2-8.29.2-4.1-9.28.15.6-5.8 -18.2
2021-1.02.84.55.30.72.22.43.0-4.77.0-0.84.6 28.7
20200.0-7.9-12.512.74.81.85.97.0-3.7-2.510.93.7 18.3
20198.03.21.84.1-6.47.01.5-1.71.92.23.62.9 31.2
20185.6-3.6-2.70.52.40.63.73.20.6-6.91.9-8.8 -4.6
20171.83.90.11.01.40.62.10.32.02.43.11.2 21.7
2016-5.0-0.16.70.41.70.33.60.10.0-1.73.72.0 12.0
2015-3.05.6-1.61.01.3-2.02.3-6.1-2.68.50.4-1.7 1.2
2014-3.54.60.80.72.32.1-1.33.9-1.42.42.7-0.3 13.5
20135.11.33.81.92.4-1.35.2-3.03.24.63.02.6 32.3
20124.64.33.2-0.7-6.04.11.22.52.5-1.80.60.9 16.0
20112.33.50.02.9-1.1-1.7-2.0-5.5-6.910.9-0.41.0 1.9
2010-3.63.16.11.5-7.9-5.26.8-4.59.03.80.06.7 15.1
2009-8.2-10.78.39.95.8-0.17.53.73.5-1.96.21.9 26.4
2008-6.0-2.6-0.94.81.5-8.4-0.91.5-9.4-16.5-7.01.0 -36.8
20071.5-2.01.24.43.4-1.5-3.11.33.91.4-3.9-1.1 5.1
20062.40.61.71.3-3.00.30.42.22.73.22.01.3 15.8
2005-2.22.1-1.8-1.93.20.23.8-0.90.8-2.44.4-0.2 4.8
20042.01.4-1.3-1.91.71.9-3.20.21.01.34.53.0 10.7
2003-2.5-1.30.28.55.51.11.82.1-1.15.41.15.0 28.2
2002-1.0-1.83.3-5.8-0.6-7.4-7.90.7-10.58.26.2-5.7 -21.6
20014.4-9.5-5.68.5-0.6-2.4-1.0-5.9-8.21.37.80.6 -11.8
2000-5.0-1.59.7-3.5-1.62.0-1.66.5-5.5-0.5-7.5-0.5 -9.7
19993.5-3.24.13.8-2.35.5-3.1-0.5-2.26.41.75.7 20.4
19981.36.94.91.3-2.14.3-1.4-14.16.48.15.66.5 28.7
19976.21.0-4.46.36.34.17.9-5.24.8-2.53.91.9 33.5
19963.60.31.71.12.30.9-4.51.95.63.27.3-2.4 22.5
19953.44.12.83.04.02.03.20.44.2-0.34.41.6 38.0
19943.5-2.9-4.21.11.6-2.33.23.8-2.52.8-4.00.7 0.4
19931.12.2-2.62.70.4-0.53.8-0.72.0-1.11.2 8.7

The 5 worst drawdowns

Each fall from a high: how deep, how long to the low, and how long until the old high was back.

InvestWealth System

#FallHighLowHigh regainedDownBack up
1-29.5%Jan 2022Oct 2022Jan 202410 months1.3 years
2-23.0%Feb 2020Mar 2020Aug 202028 days5 months
3-22.2%Oct 2007Nov 2008Oct 20091.1 years11 months
4-19.2%Apr 2011Nov 2011Jan 20137 months1.1 years
5-18.2%Feb 2025Apr 2025Jul 202548 days3 months

Buy & hold

#FallHighLowHigh regainedDownBack up
1-55.2%Oct 2007Mar 2009Aug 20121.4 years3.4 years
2-47.5%Mar 2000Oct 2002Oct 20062.5 years4.0 years
3-33.7%Feb 2020Mar 2020Aug 202033 days5 months
4-24.5%Jan 2022Oct 2022Dec 20239 months1.2 years
5-19.4%Sep 2018Dec 2018Apr 20193 months4 months

Rolling 12-month return

The return over the previous 12 months, at every month-end.

Monthly returns: how often

Number of months in each 2-point band: the 0% bar counts months between −1% and +1%, the +2% bar months between +1% and +3%, and so on. Fewer months far left = fewer painful months.

Live tracking

The rules were fixed on 16 October 2026 and every month-end decision since then is recorded once and never changed. Live results appear here with the same 3-month delay, from early 2027.

How these numbers are made

  • Tested before it was fixed. The rules were chosen with split-sample tests (rules picked on one part of the history, checked on the rest) and fixed on 16 October 2026. All results on this page cover the full sample, Jan 1993 to Jul 2026.
  • Month-end decisions, traded at that day’s close; when the strategy is out of the market the money sits in a defensive cash leg (in T-bills for the years before the funds of the cash leg existed). Estimated trading costs are deducted.
  • Daily data. CAGR by calendar time; Sharpe and Sortino on daily returns above 3-month T-bills, scaled to a year with √252; drawdowns from daily closes, from a high until that high is regained; value at risk and expected shortfall historical, daily, 95 %.
  • Checked independently. Every number is recalculated with QuantStats, a widely used open-source performance library, on the same daily returns each time the code changes; the check fails if any figure differs.

InvestWealth.com (including H2 Intel Ltd and Dr. Harry Hamann) is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Backtested results are hypothetical (including estimated trading costs), do not reflect actual trading and do not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of capital. Full disclaimer.