How long will my money last? Tested on every retirement since 1872
How many years your savings would have lasted at your spending level, in every retirement start since 1872, not at one assumed return.
Spending that lasted in every start year since 1872
The most you could have spent per year (rising with inflation) so that the money lasted the full period in every historical start, for your savings and costs. Highlighted: your mix.
| Stocks / bonds | 20 years | 30 years | 40 years | 50 years |
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Why one return assumption is not enough
Most "how long will my money last" calculators ask for a single return, say 5% a year, and divide. Real retirements do not get an average year every year. Two people who retire with the same savings and the same spending can end up decades apart, because one retires into a long bull market and the other into a crash followed by inflation. The order of the returns decides, and no single number captures it.
This calculator takes the other route. It runs your plan through every retirement start since 1872, one per year, with the real returns of US stocks and 10-year Treasuries and the real inflation of each year. Your spending rises with inflation every year, so it buys the same basket throughout. The result is not one answer but a distribution: how long the money lasted in the median case, in the worst case, in the best, and how often it lasted 30 or 40 years.
How to read the result
Lasted 30 years in X% of starts is the number to look at first. If it is close to 100%, your spending survived every past including the 1929 crash and the 1966–1982 inflation. If it is 80%, one retirement in five would have run out, and the ones that failed are not random: they cluster in starts with a deep fall or high inflation in the first decade. The worst start year tells you which history you are implicitly betting against. The table turns it around: the spending that would have lasted 30, 40 or 50 years in every single start, for your mix of stocks and bonds. The “kept in cash” line answers the other version of the question: what if you do not invest at all? Cash earns a fixed rate while your spending rises with prices, so it runs out sooner over long horizons; the calculator shows by how much, start year by start year.
What makes the money last longer
Three things, in order of effect. Spending less, obviously: each 0.5 percentage point of the portfolio you do not spend adds years at the margin. Holding enough stocks: in the long record, 40–80% in stocks lasted longest; the very cautious mixes ran out sooner over long horizons because bonds often did not keep up with inflation. And flexibility: cutting spending after a bad year, which this calculator does not model, is the single most powerful lever a retiree has. See the safe withdrawal rate calculator for the same test expressed as a rate, with the history of the 4% rule in its FAQ.
What this calculator does not do
It uses US data before taxes and costs (enter your fund and advice costs in the form). It assumes you spend the same real amount every year and never adjust, which is harsher than most people behave. It does not include a pension or Social Security; subtract that income from your spending before you enter it. And it is history, not a forecast: the future can be worse than the worst past.
Frequently asked questions
How long will my money last if I withdraw 4% a year?
In US data since 1872, with 60% stocks and 40% bonds and the withdrawal raised with inflation every year, 4% of the starting portfolio lasted at least 30 years in 124 of 125 historical starts; the one failure began in 1966 and ran out in year 29. Over 40 years, about 3.6% lasted in every start. Backtested, hypothetical.
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
It depends on spending, the mix and the start year, not on the amount. Spending $40,000 a year rising with inflation (4%) from a 60/40 portfolio lasted 30 years or more in 99% of historical starts since 1872; $50,000 (5%) in about 77%; $60,000 (6%) in about 53%. Enter your own figures above to see the full distribution.
How long will $500,000 last?
The same percentages apply: $20,000 a year (4%) lasted at least 30 years in 99% of historical starts with 60/40; $25,000 (5%) in about 77%; $30,000 (6%) in about 53%. Add a pension or Social Security by subtracting it from the spending you enter.
What is the safest withdrawal rate for 40 years?
In the 1872–2025 record, about 3.6% a year with 60% stocks survived every 40-year start; with 20% stocks it fell to 2.7%. Longer retirements punish bond-heavy portfolios because bonds often failed to keep up with inflation for a decade or more.
Why does the start year matter so much?
Because withdrawals turn a temporary fall into a permanent loss: you sell shares at low prices to pay for living costs, and those shares are gone when the market recovers. A retiree who started in 1982 ended with several times the starting value; one who started in 1966 with the same plan ran out. This is called sequence-of-returns risk.
How long will my money last if I keep it in cash and do not invest?
Enter an interest rate in the "kept in cash" field and the calculator shows it next to the invested result, with the same spending and the same historical inflation. Cash at 2% with spending of 5% of the pot typically lasted about 20 years, because the spending rises with prices while the interest does not; invested 60/40, the same spending lasted 30 years or more in about three starts out of four. A savings account is safe from market falls and exposed to inflation.
Does the calculator include inflation?
Yes. Your spending is raised with each year's actual US inflation, so the amount buys the same basket every year, and all results are shown in today's money. The high-inflation years 1917, 1947 and 1974–1981 are part of the test.
From assumptions to real numbers, free
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Illustration only — not investment advice and not a forecast. Real returns vary from year to year and can be negative. Disclaimer.