What returns are realistic?
Promises of 50% a year are a red flag. What long-term returns stocks, bonds and gold have really delivered — and what the best investors achieved.
If someone promises you 30% or 50% a year, be careful. Even the most famous investors in history achieved far less over long periods — and with deep losses along the way.
What markets have delivered
Over long periods, broad stock markets returned roughly 7–10% a year including dividends, bonds less, gold somewhere in between — each with very different risks:
Every dot that sits high (more return) also tends to sit to the right (deeper falls). There is no free lunch: the markets with the highest returns had crashes of 50%, 70% or more.
What the best achieved
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway compounded at roughly 20% a year for almost six decades — one of the best long-term records ever, and it included several falls of around 50%. Most professional funds do not beat their index at all after costs over 15 years.
Why even 8% is powerful
At 8% a year, money doubles about every nine years. $1,000 a month for 30 years at 8% grows to roughly $1.5 million — from $360,000 paid in. You do not need extraordinary returns; you need reasonable returns, held for a long time, without a catastrophic loss.
Calculate it: compound interest calculator · CAGR · Sharpe ratio
Put it into practice: a free account unlocks equity curves and signals for six core markets and the full glossary.
🔒 Open free accountEducational content, not investment advice. Disclaimer.